Periodicity, synchronization and persistence in pre-vaccination measles

Marguta, Ramona and Parisi, Andrea (2016) Periodicity, synchronization and persistence in pre-vaccination measles. Interface, 13 (119). ISSN 1742-5689

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We investigate the relationship between periodicity, synchronization and persistence of measles through simulations of geographical spread on the British Isles. We show that the establishment of areas of biennial periodicity depends on the interplay between human mobility and local population size and that locations undergoing biennial cycles tend to be, on average, synchronized in phase. We show however that occurrences of opposition of phase are actually quite common and correspond to stable dynamics. We also show that persistence is strictly related to circulation of the disease in the highly populated area of London and that this ensures survival of the disease even when human mobility drops to extremely low levels.

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© 2016 The Author(s).
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27 Apr 2018 09:12
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22 Nov 2022 05:42