Short term electricity demand forecasting using partially linear additive quantile regression with an application to the unit commitment problem

Lebotsa, Moshoko Emily and Sigauke, Caston and Bere, Alphonce and Fildes, Robert and Boylan, John E. (2018) Short term electricity demand forecasting using partially linear additive quantile regression with an application to the unit commitment problem. Applied Energy, 222. pp. 104-118. ISSN 0306-2619

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Abstract

Abstract Short term probabilistic load forecasting is essential for any power generating utility. This paper discusses an application of partially linear additive quantile regression models for predicting short term electricity demand during the peak demand hours (i.e. from 18:00 to 20:00) using South African data for January 2009 to June 2012. Additionally the bounded variable mixed integer linear programming technique is used on the forecasts obtained in order to find an optimal number of units to commit (switch on or off. Variable selection is done using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Results from the unit commitment problem show that it is very costly to use gas fired generating units. These were not selected as part of the optimal solution. It is shown that the optimal solutions based on median forecasts ( Q 0.5 quantile forecasts) are the same as those from the 99th quantile forecasts except for generating unit g 8 c , which is a coal fired unit. This shows that for any increase in demand above the median quantile forecasts it will be economical to increase the generation of electricity from generating unit g 8 c . The main contribution of this study is in the use of nonlinear trend variables and the combining of forecasting with the unit commitment problem. The study should be useful to system operators in power utility companies in the unit commitment scheduling and dispatching of electricity at a minimal cost particularly during the peak period when the grid is constrained due to increased demand for electricity.

Item Type:

Journal Article

Journal or Publication Title:

Applied Energy

Additional Information:

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Applied Energy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Applied Energy, 222, 2018 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.155

Uncontrolled Keywords:

/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2100

Subjects:

?? lassomixed integer linear programmingquantile regressionshort term peak load forecastingunit commitmentenergy(all)civil and structural engineering ??

Departments:

Lancaster University Management School > Management Science

ID Code:

124464

Deposited By:

ep_importer_pure

Deposited On:

11 Apr 2018 10:36

Refereed?:

Yes

Published?:

Published