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Statistical inference and model selection for the 1861 Hagelloch measles epidemic.

Neal, Peter J. and Roberts, Gareth O. (2004) Statistical inference and model selection for the 1861 Hagelloch measles epidemic. Biostatistics, 5 (2). pp. 249-261. ISSN 1468-4357

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Abstract

A stochastic epidemic model is proposed which incorporates heterogeneity in the spread of a disease through a population. In particular, three factors are considered: the spatial location of an individual's home and the household and school class to which the individual belongs. The model is applied to an extremely informative measles data set and the model is compared with nested models, which incorporate some, but not all, of the aforementioned factors. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is then introduced which assists in selecting the most appropriate model to fit the data.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Biostatistics
Uncontrolled Keywords: Model choice ; Reversible jump MCMC ; Stochastic epidemics.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 9526
Deposited By: Mrs Yaling Zhang
Deposited On: 13 Jun 2008 11:06
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Oct 2013 15:43
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/9526

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