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Coal overcapacity in China : Multiscale analysis and prediction

Wang, Delu and Wang, Yadong and Song, Xuefeng and Liu, Yun (2018) Coal overcapacity in China : Multiscale analysis and prediction. Energy Economics, 70. pp. 244-257. ISSN 0140-9883

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    Abstract

    Gaining a quantitative understanding of the causes of coal overcapacity and accurately predicting it are important for both government agencies and coal enterprises. Following the decomposition-reconstruction-prediction concept, a combined Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-Least Square Support Vector Machine-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (EEMD-LSSVM-ARIMA) model is proposed for quantitatively analyzing and forecasting coal overcapacity in China. The results show that the main causes of coal overcapacity in China include insufficient demand, market failure, and institutional distortion. Institutional distortion, with an influence degree of 73.75%, is the most fundamental and influential factor. From 2017 to 2019, the scale of coal overcapacity in China will reach between 1.721and 1.819 billion tons, suggesting that coal overcapacity will remain a serious problem. The rate of coal overcapacity caused by insufficient demand will fluctuate slightly, while coal overcapacity caused by market failure will trend downward, but the impact of institutional distortion on coal overcapacity will be exacerbated. A statistical analysis demonstrates that the EEMD-LSSVM-ARIMA model significantly outperformed other widely developed baselines (e.g. ARIMA, LSSVM, EEMD-ARIMA, and EEMD-LSSVM).

    Item Type: Journal Article
    Journal or Publication Title: Energy Economics
    Additional Information: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Economics, 70, 2018 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.004
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Coal industry ; Overcapacity ; Multiscale analysis ; Forecasting ; Integrated model
    Subjects:
    Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
    ID Code: 89597
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 10 Jan 2018 10:00
    Refereed?: Yes
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 15 Oct 2018 16:49
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/89597

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