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Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models

Gonzalez Belmonte, Miguel Angel and Koop, Gary and Korobilis, Dimitris (2014) Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models. Journal of Forecasting, 33 (1). 80–94. ISSN 0277-6693

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Abstract

In this paper, we forecast EU area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: (i) time varying; (ii) constant over time; or (iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically to which category each coefficient belongs. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Forecasting
Uncontrolled Keywords: forecasting ; hierarchical prior ; Bayesian Lasso ; time-varying parameters
Subjects:
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
ID Code: 70575
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 28 Aug 2014 14:08
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 14 Dec 2017 05:44
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/70575

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