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Determining the range of predictions for calibrated agent-based simulation models

Shi, DongFang and Brooks, Roger (2010) Determining the range of predictions for calibrated agent-based simulation models. In: Proceedings of the Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop 2010 (SW10). .

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Abstract

Agent-based simulation is increasingly used to study systems in many areas of business and science. Using agent-based simulation for prediction could be very valuable. However, these models usually have many parameters which are difficult to measure directly leading to uncertainty as to the best values to use. It is very important to consider the alternative feasible sets of parameter values, otherwise the modelling results could be misleading. A method is described to take account of this when making predictions and was applied to an agent-based word of mouth consumer model. The result was a wide prediction range indicating the limitations of using such a model for predictions. The method could also be applied in other situations.

Item Type: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
ID Code: 58513
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 27 Sep 2012 09:48
Refereed?: No
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 10 Apr 2014 01:38
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/58513

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