Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos and Assimakopoulos, V and Bougioukos, Nikos and Litsa, Akrivi and Petropoulos, Fotios (2012) The Theta model: An essential forecasting tool for Supply Chain planning. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 123. pp. 431-437. ISSN 1876-1100Full text not available from this repository.
The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it became a benchmark in any empirical forecasting exercise and an essential tool for efficient Supply Chain Management ad planning as it provides very accurate point forecasts. The present study focuses on if the Theta model is a special case of Simple Exponential Smoothing with drift (SES-d). The Theta model outperforms SES-d in the Quarterly-M3 and Other-M3 subsets by 0.30% and 0.36%.
|Journal or Publication Title:||Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Theta model ; Exponential Smoothing ; M3-Competition ; Supply Chain forecasting|
|Departments:||Lancaster University Management School > Management Science|
|Deposited On:||18 Sep 2012 15:01|
|Last Modified:||18 Sep 2012 15:01|
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