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Future uncertain:expected versus attained job mobility among managers

Nicholson, Nigel and West, Michael and Cawsey, Thomas F (1985) Future uncertain:expected versus attained job mobility among managers. Journal of Occupational Psychology, 58 (4). pp. 313-320.

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Abstract

How good are managers at predicting their own job mobility? A one-year follow up (n = 1082) to a large scale survey of British managers allowed respondents' original predictions of their own likely job changes over the coming year to be tested. Results showed expectations were predictive of actual attainments well above chance level, more so for employer changes than for promotions and other job changes, but the level of prediction in general was not high, only equivalent to correlations of between 0·2 and 0·3. Most managers, it seems, have inaccurate perceptions of their short-term career futures. The implications are considered for the relationship between intention and behaviour, ‘the illusion of control’ and biases affecting judgement under uncertainty. It is suggested that career development practice would be enhanced by a more realistic and open analysis of uncertainty and its causes. The findings also carry a cautionary message about statistical inference from contingency tables.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Occupational Psychology
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Lancaster University Management School - Other > Centre for Performance-Led HR
ID Code: 57136
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 10 Aug 2012 19:40
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Apr 2014 23:59
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/57136

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