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Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts

Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Panziera, Luca and Germann, Urs (2012) Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. In: Weather radar and hydrology. IAHS Publication, 351 . International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Wallingford, pp. 562-567. ISBN 9781907161261

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Abstract

The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.

Item Type: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords: SYSTEMS ; LIMITS ; SCALE ; IMPRINTS ; DBM ; PREDICTION ; IMAGES ; NORA ; flash flood ; PRECIPITATION ; VERIFICATION ; CATCHMENT ; PREDICTABILITY ; METHODOLOGY ; Verzasca
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 56767
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 08 Aug 2012 15:12
Refereed?: No
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 18 Jun 2015 07:06
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/56767

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