Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Panziera, Luca and Germann, Urs (2012) Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. In: Weather radar and hydrology. IAHS Publication, 351 . International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Wallingford, pp. 562-567. ISBN 9781907161261Full text not available from this repository.
The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.
|Item Type:||Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||SYSTEMS ; LIMITS ; SCALE ; IMPRINTS ; DBM ; PREDICTION ; IMAGES ; NORA ; flash flood ; PRECIPITATION ; VERIFICATION ; CATCHMENT ; PREDICTABILITY ; METHODOLOGY ; Verzasca|
|Subjects:||G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences|
|Departments:||Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre|
|Deposited On:||08 Aug 2012 15:12|
|Last Modified:||03 Nov 2015 20:36|
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