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Flash Flood forecasting using Data Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts.

Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Panziera, Luca and Germann, Urs (2012) Flash Flood forecasting using Data Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. In: Waether Radar and Hydrology. IAHS Red Book Series, 351 . , Wallingford, pp. 562-567. ISBN 978-1-907161-26-1

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Abstract

The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.

Item Type: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords: DBM ; NORA ; flash flood ; IMPRINTS ; Verzasca
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 56767
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 08 Aug 2012 15:12
Refereed?: No
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 17 Sep 2013 09:29
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/56767

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