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Data-based mechanistic modelling of tidally affected river reaches for flood warning purposes:an example on the River Dee, UK

Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Horsburgh, Kevin (2013) Data-based mechanistic modelling of tidally affected river reaches for flood warning purposes:an example on the River Dee, UK. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 139 (671). pp. 340-349. ISSN 0035-9009

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Abstract

This article discusses a coupled water level forecasting system constructed for the River Dee (UK) using parsimonious, physically interpretable, time series models. Tidal forecasts, provided by a simple harmonic model, and observed water levels at the upstream boundary are used to drive a nonlinear hydrological model which forecasts water levels at three gauged sites on the flood plain. The assimilation of observed data and use of the model for real-time forecasting is presented. The results generated indicate that the forecasts of river water can be both timely and accurate except close to the tidal boundary where the the tide is affected by the weir at Chester.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
Uncontrolled Keywords: flood forecasting ; tidal estuary ; data assimilation
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 56762
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 10 Aug 2012 17:35
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 14 Aug 2014 15:16
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/56762

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