Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Weerts, A. H. and Leedal, David (2012) Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16 (8). pp. 2783-2799. ISSN 1027-5606
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This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.
|Journal or Publication Title:||Hydrology and Earth System Sciences|
|Additional Information:||© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.|
|Subjects:||G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences|
|Departments:||Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre|
|Deposited On:||08 Aug 2012 15:18|
|Last Modified:||11 Dec 2012 11:55|
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