Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Weerts, A. H. and Leedal, David (2012) Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences and Discussions, 16 (8). pp. 2783-2799. ISSN 1027-5606
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This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.
|Journal or Publication Title:||Hydrology and Earth System Sciences and Discussions|
|Additional Information:||© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.|
|Subjects:||G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences|
|Departments:||Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre|
|Deposited On:||08 Aug 2012 15:18|
|Last Modified:||09 Apr 2014 23:56|
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