Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Weerts, A. H. and Leedal, David (2012) Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16 (8). pp. 2783-2799. ISSN 1027-5606
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012
Abstract
This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Journal or Publication Title: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Additional Information: | © Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences |
| Departments: | Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre |
| ID Code: | 56758 |
| Deposited By: | ep_importer_pure |
| Deposited On: | 08 Aug 2012 15:18 |
| Refereed?: | Yes |
| Published?: | Published |
| Last Modified: | 11 Dec 2012 11:55 |
| Identification Number: | |
| URI: | http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/56758 |
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