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Instance sampling in credit scoring: An empirical study of sample size and balancing

Crone, Sven F. and Finlay, Steven (2012) Instance sampling in credit scoring: An empirical study of sample size and balancing. International Journal of Forecasting, 28 (1). pp. 224-238. ISSN 0169-2070

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Abstract

To date, best practice in sampling credit applicants has been established based largely on expert opinion, which generally recommends that small samples of 1500 instances each of both goods and bads are sufficient, and that the heavily biased datasets observed should be balanced by undersampling the majority class. Consequently, the topics of sample sizes and sample balance have not been subject to either formal study in credit scoring, or empirical evaluations across different data conditions and algorithms of varying efficiency. This paper describes an empirical study of instance sampling in predicting consumer repayment behaviour, evaluating the relative accuracies of logistic regression, discriminant analysis, decision trees and neural networks on two datasets across 20 samples of increasing size and 29 rebalanced sample distributions created by gradually under- and over-sampling the goods and bads respectively. The paper makes a practical contribution to model building on credit scoring datasets, and provides evidence that using samples larger than those recommended in credit scoring practice provides a significant increase in accuracy across algorithms.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
Uncontrolled Keywords: Credit scoring ; Data pre-processing ; Sample size ; Under-sampling ; Over-sampling ; Balancing
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
ID Code: 56114
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 13 Jul 2012 13:13
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2013 13:30
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/56114

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