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The maximum and minimum of primary forecasts

Cain, M. and Law, D. and Peel, David (1992) The maximum and minimum of primary forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 11 (8). pp. 711-718. ISSN 0277-6693

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to suggest that the maximum (or minimum) of a number of primary forecasts may make a valuable addition to the forecasting accuracy of a combination of forecasts. Such forecasts are readily computable. Theoretical results are presented for two unbiased forecasts with correlated normally distributed errors, showing that the maximum (minimum) of two forecasts can have a smaller error variance than either of the primary forecasts and the forecast error can have low correlation with the primary errors. Empirical results are obtained for two different sets of forecasts available in the literature, and it is observed that a combination forecast including the maximum and/or minimum has attractive forecasting properties.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Forecasting
Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecast combination ; Maximum forecast ; Minimum forecast ; Hog data ; Money supply
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Economics
ID Code: 55891
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 17 Jul 2012 11:18
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 20:44
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/55891

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