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Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: the NFL betting market revisted

Cain, M. and Law, D. and Peel, David (2000) Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: the NFL betting market revisted. Journal of Forecasting, 19 (7). pp. 575-586. ISSN 0277-6693

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Abstract

This paper examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. Previous econometric work on the subject has been based on least squares estimators, and has been marred by non-normal errors, which have cast doubt on standard hypothesis testing procedures. It is found that the negative binomial distribution provides a good description of points scored in NFL football games, but no significant departures from market efficiency were discovered.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Forecasting
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Economics
ID Code: 55887
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 16 Jul 2012 11:40
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Apr 2014 23:48
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/55887

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