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Meteorological conditions and incidence of Legionnaires’ disease in Glasgow, Scotland: application of statistical modelling

Dunn, Christine E. and Rowlingson, Barry and Bhopal, R. S. and Diggle, Peter (2013) Meteorological conditions and incidence of Legionnaires’ disease in Glasgow, Scotland: application of statistical modelling. Epidemiology and Infection, 141 (4). pp. 687-696. ISSN 0950-2688

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Abstract

This study investigated the relationships between Legionnaires’ disease (LD) incidence and weather in Glasgow, UK, by using advanced statistical methods. Using daily meteorological data and 78 LD cases with known exact date of onset, we fitted a series of Poisson log-linear regression models with explanatory variables for air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and year, and sine-cosine terms for within-year seasonal variation. Our initial model showed an association between LD incidence and 2-day lagged humidity (positive, P=0.0236) and wind speed (negative, P=0.033). However, after adjusting for year-by-year and seasonal variation in cases there were no significant associations with weather. We also used normal linear models to assess the importance of short-term, unseasonable weather values. The most significant association was between LD incidence and air temperature residual lagged by 1 day prior to onset (P=0.0014). The contextual role of unseasonably high air temperatures is worthy of further investigation. Our methods and results have further advanced understanding of the role which weather plays in risk of LD infection.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Epidemiology and Infection
Uncontrolled Keywords: Legionnaires' disease ; statistics
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Health and Medicine > Medicine
ID Code: 55782
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 09 Jul 2012 13:08
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 22 Apr 2013 16:17
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/55782

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