Lancaster EPrints

Incumbent Effects and Partisan Alignment in Local Elections: a Regression Discontinuity Analysis Using Italian Data

Bracco, Emanuele and Redoano, Michela and Porcelli, Francesco (2012) Incumbent Effects and Partisan Alignment in Local Elections: a Regression Discontinuity Analysis Using Italian Data. Working Paper. CAGE, Warwick.

[img]
Preview
PDF - Draft Version
Download (552Kb) | Preview

    Abstract

    This paper provides a simple model to explain effect of political alignment between different tiers of government on policy choices and election outcomes. We derive precise predictions that, as long as voters attribute most of the credit for providing public goods to the local government: (i) aligned municipalities receive more grants, set lower taxes and provide more public goods, (ii) that the probability that the local incumbent is re-elected is higher in aligned municipalities compared to not aligned ones. Our empirical strategy to identify the alignment effects is built upon the fact that being or not aligned changes discontinuously at 50% of the vote share of local parties. This allows us to use sharp regression discontinuity design. Our theoretical predictions are largely confirmed using a new dataset on Italian public finance and electoral data at the central and local level.

    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    Uncontrolled Keywords: fiscal federalism ; political competition ; accountability
    Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
    Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Economics
    ID Code: 55630
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 10 Jul 2012 10:58
    Refereed?: No
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 18 Jan 2013 16:01
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/55630

    Actions (login required)

    View Item