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Behavioural Modelling of Career Progression in the European Commission

Onggo, Stephan and Soopramanien, Didier and Pidd, Mike and Worthington, David (2012) Behavioural Modelling of Career Progression in the European Commission. European Journal of Operational Research, 222 (3). 632–641. ISSN 0377-2217

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    Abstract

    Though manpower planning models have been part of OR for many years, and simulation has always been acknowledged as a potential approach, there are few reported applications of its use. In this case-based study we report on a micro-simulation model that exploits the structure of the European Commission’s appraisal and promotion rules, and includes regression-based sampling schemes which allow for non-Normal error terms to represent behavioural factors that led to the need for a new system. With a suitably parsimonious formulation the 20,000 person model runs very effectively, and the transparency associated with simulation proves an important factor in the successful use of the model as the basis for designing a promotion box system that was implemented across the Commission in 2009. The simulation modelling incorporates many Markov-type elements, and we reflect on important lessons learned from this combined use of micro-simulation and Markov-based approaches to manpower modelling.

    Item Type: Article
    Journal or Publication Title: European Journal of Operational Research
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Human resources ; OR in manpower planning ; Simulation ; Linear regression
    Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
    Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
    ID Code: 55509
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 28 Jun 2012 11:29
    Refereed?: Yes
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 19 Dec 2013 16:08
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/55509

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