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Predicting Reconviction Rates in Northern Ireland

Francis, Brian and Harman, Juliet and Humphreys, Leslie (2005) Predicting Reconviction Rates in Northern Ireland. Research and Statistical Bulletin, 7/2005 . Northern Ireland Office.

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    The aim of this Bulletin is to inform policy colleagues in their work towards the achievement of Target 3 of the Northern Ireland Office Public Service Agreement which looks at reducing the rate of reconviction in Northern Ireland. Recent data was used to develop statistical models for predicting the rates of reconviction within two years of receiving a community sentence or release from custody in Northern Ireland. Observed rates can then be compared with the predicted rates. The models are based on the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS) developed by Copas and Marshall (1998), and its later modification by Taylor (1999). They assume that the probability of reconviction can be associated with a small number of influential factors relating to the demographic characteristics and criminal history of the offender.

    Item Type: Book/Report/Proceedings
    Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
    ID Code: 49993
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 28 Sep 2011 11:04
    Refereed?: No
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 03 Nov 2015 22:02
    Identification Number:

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