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Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Gauss, M and Myhre, G and Pitari, G and Prather, M J and Isaksen, I S A and Berntsen, T K and Brasseur, G P and Dentener, F J and Derwent, R G and Hauglustaine, D A and Horowitz, L W and Jacob, D J and Johnson, M and Law, K S and Mickley, L J and Muller, J F and Plantevin, P H and Pyle, J A and Rogers, H L and Stevenson, D S and Sundet, J K and van Weele, M and Wild, O (2003) Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108 (D9). -. ISSN 0747-7309

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    Abstract

    Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ("OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the "SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change.

    Item Type: Article
    Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    Uncontrolled Keywords: CHEMICAL-TRANSPORT MODEL ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; SEMI-LAGRANGIAN TRANSPORT ; AIRCRAFT MOZAIC DATA ; TRACER TRANSPORT ; ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT ; 3-DIMENSIONAL MODEL ; PHOTOCHEMICAL MODEL ; GLOBAL TROPOSPHERE ; NITROGEN-OXIDES
    Subjects:
    Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
    ID Code: 49589
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 07 Sep 2011 14:15
    Refereed?: Yes
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 17 Sep 2013 08:27
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/49589

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