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Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide:comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

Shindell, D. T. and Faluvegi, G. and Stevenson, D. S. and Krol, M. C. and Emmons, L. K. and Lamarque, J. -F. and Petron, G. and Dentener, F. J. and Ellingsen, K. and Schultz, M. G. and Wild, O. and Amann, M. and Atherton, C. S. and Bergmann, D. J. and Bey, I. and Butler, T. and Cofala, J. and Collins, W. J. and Derwent, R. G. and Doherty, R. M. and Drevet, J. and Eskes, H. J. and Fiore, A. M. and Gauss, M. and Hauglustaine, D. A. and Horowitz, L. W. and Isaksen, I. S. A. and Lawrence, M. G. and Montanaro, V. and Mueller, J. -F. and Pitari, G. and Prather, M. J. and Pyle, J. A. and Rast, S. and Rodriguez, J. M. and Sanderson, M. G. and Savage, N. H. and Strahan, S. E. and Sudo, K. and Szopa, S. and Unger, N. and van Noije, T. P. C. and Zeng, G. (2006) Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide:comparison with observations and projected near-future changes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111 (D19). -. ISSN 0747-7309

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    Abstract

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 +/- 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 +/- 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 +/- 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 +/- 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20-30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.

    Item Type: Article
    Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    Uncontrolled Keywords: CHEMICAL-TRANSPORT MODEL ; STRATOSPHERE-TROPOSPHERE EXCHANGE ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; AIRCRAFT MOZAIC DATA ; NONMETHANE HYDROCARBONS ; OZONE SIMULATIONS ; METHANE EMISSIONS ; WESTERN PACIFIC ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; 3-D MODELS
    Subjects:
    Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
    ID Code: 49578
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 07 Sep 2011 11:27
    Refereed?: Yes
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 17 Sep 2013 08:27
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/49578

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