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Forecasting Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa

Naraidoo, R and Paya, I (2010) Forecasting Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa. Working Paper. The Department of Economics, Lancaster University.

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    Abstract

    This paper is the .rst one to: (i) provide in-sample estimates of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules augmented with an indicator of .nancial stability for the case of South Africa, (ii) analyse the ability of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rule speci.cations as well as nonparametric and semiparametric models in forecasting the nominal interest rate setting that describes the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) policy decisions. Our results indicate, .rst, that asset prices are taken into account when setting interest rates; second, the existence of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule; and third, forecasts constructed from combinations of all models perform particularly well and that there are gains from semiparametric models in forecasting the interest rates as the forecasting horizon lengthens.

    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Taylor rules ; nonlinearity ; nonparametric ; semiparametric ; forecasting
    Subjects:
    Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Economics
    ID Code: 49019
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 11 Jul 2011 22:29
    Refereed?: No
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 27 Jul 2012 01:20
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/49019

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