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Non-Linear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU-Level

Trapero Arenas, J R and Fildes, R A and Davydenko, A (2009) Non-Linear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU-Level. Working Paper. The Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.

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    Abstract

    Prediction of demand is a key component within supply chain management. Im- proved accuracy in forecasts affects directly all levels of the supply chain, reduc- ing stock costs and increasing customer satisfaction. In many application areas, demand prediction relies on statistical software which provides an initial forecast subsequently modified by the expert’s judgment. This paper outlines a new method- ology based on State Dependent Parameter (SDP) estimation techniques to identify the non-linear behaviour of such managerial adjustments. This non-parametric SDP estimate is used as a guideline to propose a non-linear model that corrects the bias introduced by the managerial adjustments. One-step-ahead forecasts of SKU sales sampled monthly from a manufacturing company are utilized to test the proposed methodology. The results indicate that adjustments introduce a non-linear pattern undermining accuracy. This understanding can be used to enhance the design of the Forecasting Support System in order to help forecasters towards more efficient judgmental adjustments.

    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecast adjustment ; Supply chain ; Non-linear system identification
    Subjects: UNSPECIFIED
    Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
    ID Code: 48964
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 11 Jul 2011 22:25
    Refereed?: No
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 17 Apr 2013 15:06
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/48964

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