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Forecasting intermittent demand

Teunter, R H and Duncan, L (2006) Forecasting intermittent demand. Working Paper. The Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.

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    Abstract

    Methods for forecasting intermittent demand are compared using a large data-set from the UK Royal Air Force (RAF). Several important results are found. First, we show that the traditional per period forecast error measures are not appropriate for intermittent demand, even though they are consistently used in the literature. Second, by comparing target service levels to achieved service levels when inventory decisions are based on demand forecasts, we show that Croston's method (and a variant) and Bootstrapping clearly outperform Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing. Third, we show that the performance of Croston and Bootstrapping can be significantly improved by taking into account that each lead time starts with a demand.

    Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Forecasting ; Inventory ; Intermittent demand
    Subjects:
    Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
    ID Code: 48847
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 11 Jul 2011 22:16
    Refereed?: No
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 17 Apr 2013 14:55
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/48847

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