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Modelling tactical changes of formation in association football as a zero-sum game

Hirotsu, N and Wright, M B (2005) Modelling tactical changes of formation in association football as a zero-sum game. Working Paper. The Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.

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Abstract

This paper proposes a game theoretic approach to modelling tactical changes of formation in an association football match. We use a Poisson regression model to evaluate the offensive and defensive strengths of the formations of teams for scoring or conceding a goal by means of the maximum likelihood method. We then develop a mathematical formulation to express quantitatively the tactical changes of formation as a zero-sum game by taking account of both teams’ decisions. We demonstrate how the managers’ decisions affect the probability of winning the match using real data of the J League, by showing the four cases of the quality of both managers’ decisions, depending on whether they each use their best or worst strategies.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Subjects:
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
ID Code: 48797
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 11 Jul 2011 22:13
Refereed?: No
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 27 Jul 2012 01:15
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/48797

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