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Modelling a baseball game to optimise pitcher substitution strategies incorporating handedness of players

Hirotsu, N and Wright, M B (2003) Modelling a baseball game to optimise pitcher substitution strategies incorporating handedness of players. Working Paper. The Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.

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Abstract

This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting players in a baseball game, taking into consideration the handedness of players, which is one of the main factors in terms of managerial decision-making for substitution. Using a Markov Chain model we incorporate the effect of the handedness of players by introducing the concept of the Defensive Earned Run Average (DERA) as a measure of the defensive ability of pitchers and calibrating the batting probabilities of players depending on their handedness. We then develop a dynamic programming (DP) formulation including the effect of the handedness of players. This method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball, especially focusing on the introduction of a relief pitcher in consideration with his handedness

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: baseball ; dynamic programming ; Markov chain ; modelling ; sports ; substitution
Subjects:
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
ID Code: 48655
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 11 Jul 2011 22:04
Refereed?: No
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 27 Jul 2012 01:12
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/48655

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