Hirotsu, N and Wright, M B (2003) Modelling a baseball game to optimise pitcher substitution strategies incorporating handedness of players. Working Paper. The Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting players in a baseball game, taking into consideration the handedness of players, which is one of the main factors in terms of managerial decision-making for substitution. Using a Markov Chain model we incorporate the effect of the handedness of players by introducing the concept of the Defensive Earned Run Average (DERA) as a measure of the defensive ability of pitchers and calibrating the batting probabilities of players depending on their handedness. We then develop a dynamic programming (DP) formulation including the effect of the handedness of players. This method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball, especially focusing on the introduction of a relief pitcher in consideration with his handedness
| Item Type: | Monograph (Working Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | baseball ; dynamic programming ; Markov chain ; modelling ; sports ; substitution |
| Subjects: | UNSPECIFIED |
| Departments: | Lancaster University Management School > Management Science |
| ID Code: | 48655 |
| Deposited By: | ep_importer_pure |
| Deposited On: | 11 Jul 2011 22:04 |
| Refereed?: | No |
| Published?: | Published |
| Last Modified: | 27 Jul 2012 01:12 |
| Identification Number: | |
| URI: | http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/48655 |
Actions (login required)
| View Item |
