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A dynamic programming approach to finding optimal pitcher substitution strategies in a baseball game

Hirotsu, N and Wright, M B (2003) A dynamic programming approach to finding optimal pitcher substitution strategies in a baseball game. Working Paper. The Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.

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Abstract

This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting pitchers in a baseball game played not under the Designated Hitter rule. Using a Markov Chain model we incorporate the effect of the defensive ability of pitchers using Earned Run Average (ERA) as a measure, and develop a dynamic programming formulation to evaluate the effect of pitcher substitution. The method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball. We show how this approach may help to determine when to make a substitution and how much the probability of winning increases if the optimal strategy is followed.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Subjects:
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
ID Code: 48644
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 11 Jul 2011 22:04
Refereed?: No
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 27 Jul 2012 01:11
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/48644

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