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A Bayesian approach to the triage problem with imperfect classification

Li, Dong and Glazebrook, K D (2011) A Bayesian approach to the triage problem with imperfect classification. European Journal of Operational Research, 215 (1). pp. 169-180. ISSN 0377-2217

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    Abstract

    A collection of jobs (or customers, or patients) wait impatiently for service. Each has a random lifetime during which it is available for service. Should this lifetime expire before its service starts then it leaves unserved. Limited resources mean that it is only possible to serve one job at a time. We wish to schedule the jobs for service to maximise the total number served. In support of this objective all jobs are subject to an initial triage, namely an assessment of both their urgency and of their service requirement. This assessment is subject to error. We take a Bayesian approach to the uncertainty generated by error prone triage and discuss the design of heuristic policies for scheduling jobs for service to maximise the Bayes’ return (mean number of jobs served). We identify problem features for which a high price is paid in number of services lost for poor initial triage and for which improvements in initial job assessment yield significant improvements in service outcomes. An analytical upper bound for the cost of imperfect classification is developed for exponentially distributed lifetime cases.

    Item Type: Article
    Journal or Publication Title: European Journal of Operational Research
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Dynamic programming ; Bayes sequential decision problem ; Imperfect classification ; Stochastic scheduling ; Optimal service policy
    Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
    Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
    ID Code: 45831
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 11 Jul 2011 19:38
    Refereed?: Yes
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 19 Dec 2013 16:00
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/45831

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