Brazier, R. and Scharer, M. and Heathwaite, A. L. and Beven, K. and Scholefield, Paul and Haygarth, P. and Hodgkinson, R. and Walling, D. and Withers, P. (2006) A framework for predicting delivery of phosphorus from agricultural land using a decision-tree approach. In: Sediment Dynamics and the Hydromorphology of Fluvial Systems. IAHS Red Book Series, 306 (306). International Association of Hydrological Sciences, France, pp. 514-523. ISBN 1-90150268-6
Diagnostic models such as the P Indicators Tool have been used to predict the risk of P losses from different areas of agricultural land to watercourses. These models embody the source "mobilization delivery" impact framework as a simple logical summary of process understanding. however, the assessment of P delivery has been neglected in the past. An alternative, decision-tree approach to predict the delivery of P to water bodies is presented here. The approach was developed as part of the DEFRA PEDAL project (http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/cswm/projects) and makes use of national coverage data held within a GIS at the 1 km2 scale, in combination with a "field toolkit" of measurements and qualitative observations. For all catchments, monitoring of total P loads in receiving waters has occurred over recent years enabling evaluation of the modelling and field toolkit approach.
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