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It's no riddle, choose the middle: the effect of number of crimes and topographical detail on police officer predictions of serial burglars' home locations.

Bennell, C and Snook, B and Taylor, P J and Corey, S (2007) It's no riddle, choose the middle: the effect of number of crimes and topographical detail on police officer predictions of serial burglars' home locations. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34 (1). pp. 119-132. ISSN 1552-3594

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    Abstract

    This study examines the effect of the number of crimes and topographical detail on police officer predictions of serial burglars’ home locations. Officers are given 36 maps depicting three, five, or seven crime sites and topographical or no topographical details. They are asked to predict, by marking an X on the map, where they thought each burglar lived. After making their predictions on half of the maps, officers randomly receive either no training or training in one of two simple decision-making strategies. The accuracy of predictions at baseline and retest is measured as the distance between the predicted and actual home locations, and these accuracy scores are compared to a commonly used geographic profiling system. Results show that training significantly improved predictive accuracy, regardless of the number of crime locations or topographical detail presented. In addition, trained participants are as accurate as the geographic profiling system.

    Item Type: Article
    Journal or Publication Title: Criminal Justice and Behavior
    Additional Information: The final, definitive version of this article has been published in the Journal, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34 (1), 2007, © SAGE Publications Ltd, 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd at the Criminal Justice and Behavior page: http://cjb.sagepub.com/ on SAGE Journals Online: http://online.sagepub.com/
    Uncontrolled Keywords: geographic profiling ; simple heuristics ; police ; decision making
    Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
    Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Psychology
    ID Code: 3637
    Deposited By: ep_importer
    Deposited On: 07 Mar 2008 14:45
    Refereed?: Yes
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 30 Sep 2013 11:52
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/3637

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