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Asymmetric loss functions and the rationality of expected stock returns.

Aretz, Kevin and Bartram, Sohnke and Pope, Peter (2011) Asymmetric loss functions and the rationality of expected stock returns. International Journal of Forecasting, 27 (2). pp. 413-437.

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Abstract

We combine the innovative approaches of Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) and Patton and Timmermann (2007) with a block bootstrap to analyze whether asymmetric loss functions can rationalize the S&P 500 return expectations of individual forecasters from the Livingston Surveys. Although the rationality of these forecasts has often been rejected, earlier studies have relied on the assumption that positive and negative forecast errors of identical magnitudes are equally important to forecasters. Allowing for homogenous asymmetric loss, our evidence still strongly rejects forecast rationality. However, if we allow for variation in asymmetric loss functions across forecasters, not only do we find significant differences in preferences, but also we can often no longer reject forecast rationality. Our conclusions raise serious doubts about the homogeneous expectations assumption often made in asset pricing, portfolio construction and corporate finance models.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
Uncontrolled Keywords: Financial markets ; General loss functions ; GMM block bootstrapping ; Livingston Survey ; Price forecasting
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Accounting & Finance
ID Code: 31719
Deposited By: Dr Kevin Aretz
Deposited On: 10 Feb 2010 11:27
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 17:00
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/31719

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