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Conditioning uncertainty in ecological models : assessing the impact of fire management strategies.

Piñol, Josep and Castellnou, Marc and Beven, Keith J. (2007) Conditioning uncertainty in ecological models : assessing the impact of fire management strategies. Ecological Modelling, 207 (1). pp. 34-44. ISSN 0304-3800

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Abstract

A simple simulation model has been used to investigate whether large fires in Mediterranean regions are a result of extreme weather conditions or the cumulative effect of a policy of fire suppression over decades. The model reproduced the fire regime characteristics for a wide variety of regions of Mediterranean climate in California, France and Spain. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used to assess the possibility of multiple model parameter sets being consistent with the available calibration data. The resulting set of behavioural models was used to assess uncertainty in the predictions. The results suggested that (1) for a given region, the total area burned is much the same whether suppression or prescribed fire policies are used or not; however fire suppression enhances fire intensity and prescribed burning reduces it; (2) the proportion of large fires can be reduced, but not eliminated, using prescribed fires, especially in areas which have the highest proportion of large fires.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Ecological Modelling
Uncontrolled Keywords: Fuel accumulation ; Fire suppression ; Paradox of extinction ; Fire spread ; Mediterranean ; Wildfires
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 27348
Deposited By: Mr Richard Ingham
Deposited On: 19 Oct 2009 15:25
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 16:41
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/27348

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