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Bayesian inference of hospital-acquired infections and control measures given imperfect surveillance data.

Pettitt, Anthony and Forrester, M. and Gibson, G. (2007) Bayesian inference of hospital-acquired infections and control measures given imperfect surveillance data. Biostatistics, 8 (2). pp. 383-401. ISSN 1468-4357

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Abstract

This paper describes a stochastic epidemic model developed to infer transmission rates of asymptomatic communicable pathogens within a hospital ward. Inference is complicated by partial observation of the epidemic process and dependencies within the data. The epidemic process of nosocomial communicable pathogens can be partially observed by routine swabs testing for the presence of the pathogen. False-negative swab results must be accounted for and make it difficult to ascertain the number of patients who were colonized. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used within a Bayesian framework to make inferences about the colonization rates and unknown colonization times. The methods are applied to routinely collected data concerning methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in an intensive care unit to estimate the effectiveness of isolation on reducing transmission of the bacterium.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Biostatistics
Additional Information: RAE_import_type : Journal article RAE_uoa_type : Statistics and Operational Research
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian inference ; False negatives ; Imperfect detectability ; Infectious diseases ; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods ; MRSA ; Reversible jump methods ; Screening ; Sensitivity ; Staphylococcus ; Stochastic epidemic models
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 2457
Deposited By: ep_importer
Deposited On: 29 Mar 2008 12:17
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 16:25
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/2457

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