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Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling.

Beven, Keith J. (1993) Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. Advances in Water Resources, 16 (1). pp. 41-51.

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Abstract

Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Advances in Water Resources
Uncontrolled Keywords: Distributed hydrological models ; calibration ; validation ; uncertainty estimation ; value of data ; Monte Carlo methods
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 22577
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 23 Jan 2009 12:54
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 16:02
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/22577

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