Beven, Keith J. (1993) Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. Advances in Water Resources, 16 (1). pp. 41-51.Full text not available from this repository.
Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.
|Journal or Publication Title:||Advances in Water Resources|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Distributed hydrological models ; calibration ; validation ; uncertainty estimation ; value of data ; Monte Carlo methods|
|Subjects:||G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences|
|Departments:||Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre|
|Deposited On:||23 Jan 2009 12:54|
|Last Modified:||25 Jun 2016 01:06|
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