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When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?

Wilby, Robert and Wigley, T. M. L. (2006) When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows? Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (19). L19407. ISSN 1944-8007

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Abstract

The Mann-Kendall statistic is used to investigate trends in homogeneous rainfall and river flow records since the 1860s for 15 basins in the UK. The relationship between the strength of trend and detection time is then explored for seasonal and annual flows. Here it is shown that, under widely assumed climate change scenarios, expected trends in UK summer river flows will seldom be detectable within typical planning horizons (the 2020s). Even where climate driven changes may already be underway, losses in deployable resources will have to be factored into long-term water plans long before they are statistically detectable. Rather than an excuse for inaction, such insights should inform more sophisticated approaches to environmental monitoring, climate change detection and adaptation.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Information: This paper reveals that under the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios, expected trends in summer low flows will seldom be detectable within the 2020s planning horizon used by UK water utilities. Rather than excuse for inaction, this finding points to more sophisticated approaches for monitoring and communicating climate change impacts. RAE_import_type : Journal article RAE_uoa_type : Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 2240
Deposited By: ep_importer
Deposited On: 04 Apr 2008 11:50
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Apr 2014 20:26
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/2240

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