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Simplicity out of complexity in environmental modelling: Occam's razor revisited.

Young, Peter C. and Parkinson, Stuart and Lees, Matthew (1996) Simplicity out of complexity in environmental modelling: Occam's razor revisited. Journal of Applied Statistics, 23 (2-3). pp. 165-210. ISSN 1360-0532

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Abstract

While large models based on a deterministic-reductionist philosophy have an important part to play in environmental research, it is advantageous to consider alternative modelling methodologies which overtly acknowledge the poorly defined and uncertain nature of most environmental systems. The paper discusses this topic and presents an integrated statistical modelling procedure which involves three main methodological tools: uncertainty and sensitivity studies based on Monte Carlo simulation techniques; dominant mode analysis using a new method of combined linearization and model-order reduction; and data-based mechanistic modelling. This novel approach is illustrated by two practical examples: modelling the global carbon cycle in relation to possible climate change; and modelling a horticultural glasshouse for the purposes of automatic climate control system design.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Applied Statistics
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 22207
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 12 Feb 2009 09:59
Refereed?: No
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 15:57
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/22207

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