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On constraining the predictions of a distributed model: the incorporation of fuzzy estimates of saturated areas into the calibration process.

Franks, Stewart W. and Gineste, Philippe and Beven, Keith J. and Merot, Philippe (1998) On constraining the predictions of a distributed model: the incorporation of fuzzy estimates of saturated areas into the calibration process. Water Resources Research, 34 (4). pp. 787-797. ISSN 0043-1397

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Abstract

Distributed hydrological models are generally overparameterized, resulting in the possibility of multiple parameterizations from many areas of the parameter space providing acceptable fits to observed data. In this study, TOPMODEL parameterizations are conditioned on discharges, and then further conditioned on estimates of saturated areas derived from ERS-I synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images combined with the In (α/tan β) topographic index, and compared to ground truth saturation measurements made in one small subcatchment. The uncertainty associated with the catchment-wide predictions of saturated area is explicitly incorporated into the conditioning through the weighting of estimates within a fuzzy set framework. The predictive uncertainty associated with the parameterizations is then assessed using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. It is shown that despite the uncertainty in the predictions of saturated area the methodology can reject many previously acceptable parameterizations with the consequence of a marked reduction in the acceptable range of a catchment average transmissivity parameter and of improved predictions of some discharge events.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Water Resources Research
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences > Politics & International Relations (Merged into PPR 2010-08-01)
Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 21816
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 09 Feb 2009 11:30
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 15:52
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/21816

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