Young, Peter C. and Pedregal, Diego (1997) An analysis of international tourism demand in Spain. International Journal of Forecasting, 13 (4). pp. 551-556.Full text not available from this repository.
Although the state-space, unobserved component approach to forecasting has many advantages, it must be applied carefully in practice and should not be used in an uncritical, ‘black box’ fashion. In particular, such an approach to the modelling and forecasting of Spanish tourism data is inappropriate and leads to misleading conclusions, particularly in relation to the uncritical selection and use of explanatory regression variables.
|Journal or Publication Title:||International Journal of Forecasting|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Unobserved component models ; Structural models ; Data-based mechanistic modelling ; Tourism forecasting ; Nonlinear relationships|
|Subjects:||G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences|
|Departments:||Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre|
|Deposited On:||06 Feb 2009 15:22|
|Last Modified:||07 Jan 2015 13:30|
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