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An analysis of international tourism demand in Spain.

Young, Peter C. and Pedregal, Diego (1997) An analysis of international tourism demand in Spain. International Journal of Forecasting, 13 (4). pp. 551-556.

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Abstract

Although the state-space, unobserved component approach to forecasting has many advantages, it must be applied carefully in practice and should not be used in an uncritical, ‘black box’ fashion. In particular, such an approach to the modelling and forecasting of Spanish tourism data is inappropriate and leads to misleading conclusions, particularly in relation to the uncritical selection and use of explanatory regression variables.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
Uncontrolled Keywords: Unobserved component models ; Structural models ; Data-based mechanistic modelling ; Tourism forecasting ; Nonlinear relationships
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 21794
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 06 Feb 2009 15:22
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 15:52
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/21794

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