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Flood frequency estimation under climate change (with uncertainty).

Cameron, D. and Beven, Keith J. and Naden, P. (2000) Flood frequency estimation under climate change (with uncertainty). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 4 (3). pp. 393-405. ISSN 1027-5606

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Abstract

This paper explores the potential for assessing the impacts of climate change upon flood frequency for the gauged, upland Wye catchment at Plynlimon, Wales, UK, while taking account of uncertainty in modelling rainfall-runoff processes under current conditions. A continuous simulation methodology which uses a stochastic rainfall model to drive the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL is utilised. Behavioural parameter sets for both the rainfall model and TOPMODEL are identified prior to the climate change runs using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The "medium-high" UKCIP98 climate change scenario, obtained from the HadCM2 GCM simulations, is used as a starting point for a variety of different scenarios at the catchment scale. It is demonstrated that while the scenarios have only a small impact upon the likelihood weighted flood frequency uncertainty bounds in comparison with the current condition scenario, the risk of a given discharge as an element in the distribution of T year floods is changed. This underlines the need to account explicitly for uncertainty within hydrological modelling, especially in estimating the impacts of climate change.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change ; Floods ; Frequency ; TOPMODEL
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 21601
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 22 Jan 2009 14:02
Refereed?: No
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 15:49
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/21601

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