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Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope-scale soil erosion predictions.

Brazier, Richard E. and Beven, Keith J. and Anthony, Steven G. and Rowan, John S. (2001) Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope-scale soil erosion predictions. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 26 (12). pp. 1333-1352. ISSN 0197-9337

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Abstract

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process-based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope-scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
Uncontrolled Keywords: soil erosion ; erosion modelling ; uncertainty estimation ; GLUE ; WEPP
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 21525
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 20 Jan 2009 14:54
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 15:48
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/21525

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