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Advances in real-time flood forecasting.

Young, Peter C. (2002) Advances in real-time flood forecasting. Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 360 (1796). pp. 1433-1450. ISSN 1364-503X

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Abstract

This paper discusses the modelling of rainfall-flow (rainfall-run-off) and flow-routeing processes in river systems within the context of real-time flood forecasting. It is argued that deterministic, reductionist (or 'bottom-up') models are inappropriate for real-time forecasting because of the inherent uncertainty that characterizes river-catchment dynamics and the problems of model over-parametrization. The advantages of alternative, efficiently parametrized data-based mechanistic models, identified and estimated using statistical methods, are discussed. It is shown that such models are in an ideal form for incorporation in a real-time, adaptive forecasting system based on recursive state-space estimation (an adaptive version of the stochastic Kalman filter algorithm). An illustrative example, based on the analysis of a limited set of hourly rainfall-flow data from the River Hodder in northwest England, demonstrates the utility of this methodology in difficult circumstances and illustrates the advantages of incorporating real-time state and parameter adaption.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Uncontrolled Keywords: Rainfall-Flow Processes ; Data-Based Mechanistic Models ; Recursive Estimation ; Real-Time Forecasting ; Parameter Adaption ; Variance Adaption
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 21510
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 20 Jan 2009 09:39
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 15:48
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/21510

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