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Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market.

Dixon, Mark J. and Coles, Stuart G. (1997) Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 46 (2). pp. 265-280. ISSN 0035-9254

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Abstract

A parametric model is developed and fitted to English league and cup football data from 1992 to 1995. The model is motivated by an aim to exploit potential inefficiencies in the association football betting market, and this is examined using bookmakers' odds from 1995 to 1996. The technique is based on a Poisson regression model but is complicated by the data structure and the dynamic nature of teams' performances. Maximum likelihood estimates are shown to be computationally obtainable, and the model is shown to have a positive return when used as the basis of a betting strategy.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Betting strategy • Expected return • Football (soccer) • Maximum likelihood • Poisson distribution
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 19492
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 12 Nov 2008 11:20
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 24 Oct 2014 11:27
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/19492

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