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The effect of non-stationarity on extreme sea-level estimation.

Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A. (1999) The effect of non-stationarity on extreme sea-level estimation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C: Applied Statistics, 48 (2). pp. 135-151. ISSN 1467-9876

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Abstract

The sea-level is the composition of astronomical tidal and meteorological surge processes. It exhibits temporal non-stationarity due to a combination of long-term trend in the mean level, the deterministic tidal component, surge seasonality and interactions between the tide and surge. We assess the effect of these non-stationarities on the estimation of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. This is important for coastal flood assessment as the traditional method of analysis assumes that, once the trend has been removed, extreme sea-levels are from a stationary sequence. We compare the traditional approach with a recently proposed alternative that incorporates the knowledge of the tidal component and its associated interactions, by applying them to 22 UK data sites and through a simulation study. Our main finding is that if the tidal non-stationarity is ignored then a substantial underestimation of extreme sea-levels results for most sites. In contrast, if surge seasonality and the tide–surge interaction are not modelled the traditional approach produces little additional bias. The alternative method is found to perform well but requires substantially more statistical modelling and better data quality.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C: Applied Statistics
Uncontrolled Keywords: Annual maximum method • Extreme sea-levels • Extreme value theory • Joint probabilities method • Return level
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
ID Code: 19413
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 19 Nov 2008 13:48
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Oct 2013 15:40
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/19413

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