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Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty).

Cameron, D. S. and Beven, Keith J. and Tawn, Jonathan A. and Blazkova, S. and Nadan, P. (1999) Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty). Journal of Hydrology, 219 (3-4). pp. 169-187.

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Abstract

This paper explores the possibility of deriving frequency distributions of extreme discharges by continuous simulation. The rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL is applied within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework to the River Wye catchment, Plynlimon, Wales, using a 21-year period of rainfall and discharge observations. Rejection of non-behavioural parameter sets is achieved through an evaluation of both annual maximum discharge and continuous hydrograph simulation. Annual maximum peak timings and rankings are also considered. It is demonstrated that, within the prescribed limits, TOPMODEL can adequately achieve both flood frequency and continuous simulation modelling goals. Extension of the flood frequency estimations beyond the upper limit of the observed series is attained through the coupling of behavioural TOPMODEL sets with those of a stochastic rainfall generator for 1000-year simulation periods using hourly time steps. The rainfall model is conditioned on the observed rainfall frequency statistics for different storm duration classes, also within the GLUE framework.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Hydrology
Uncontrolled Keywords: Floods ; Frequency ; TOPMODEL ; Rainfall-runoff modelling
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
ID Code: 19408
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 14 Nov 2008 09:10
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Oct 2013 15:39
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/19408

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