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Modelling extreme rainfalls using a modified random pulse Bartlett-Lewis stochastic rainfall model (with uncertainty).

Cameron, D. and Beven, K. J. and Tawn, J. A. (2000) Modelling extreme rainfalls using a modified random pulse Bartlett-Lewis stochastic rainfall model (with uncertainty). Advances in Water Resources, 24 (2). pp. 203-211.

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Abstract

A modified random pulse Bartlett–Lewis stochastic rainfall model is used for extreme rainfall simulation. The model features the use of a generalised pareto distribution (GPD) to represent the depths of high intensity raincells. A point rainfall record, obtained from a UK site is used to test the model. Parameter estimation is carried out using a two-stage approach based on the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. This procedure acknowledges the limited sample of the extreme rainfall data in the observed record in conditioning individual realisations of the random storm model. The extreme rainfall simulations produced using the model are shown to compare favourably with the site's observed series seasonal maxima. A comparison of the modelled extreme rainfall amounts, with those obtained from a direct statistical analysis of the data, is also conducted.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Advances in Water Resources
Uncontrolled Keywords: Rainfall ; Extreme ; Stochastic rainfall modelling ; Uncertainty
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
ID Code: 19336
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 21 Nov 2008 09:34
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Oct 2013 15:40
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/19336

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