Lancaster EPrints

Prognosis of lung cancer mortality in West Germany: a case study in Bayesian prediction.

Knorr-Held, L. and Rainer, E. (2001) Prognosis of lung cancer mortality in West Germany: a case study in Bayesian prediction. Biostatistics, 2 (1). pp. 109-129. ISSN 1468-4357

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

We apply a generalized Bayesian age–period–cohort (APC) model to a data-set on lung cancer mortality in West Germany, in the period 1952–1996. Our goal is to predict future death rates until the year 2010, separately for males and females. Since age and period are not measured on the same grid, we propose a generalized APC model where consecutive cohort parameters represent strongly overlapping birth cohorts. This approach results in a rather large number of parameters, where standard algorithms for statistical inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods turn out to be computationally intensive. We propose a more efficient implementation based on ideas of block sampling from the time series literature. We entertain two different formulations, penalizing either first or second differences of age, period and cohort parameters. To assess the predictive quality of both formulations, we first forecast the rates for the period 1987–1996 based on data until 1986. A comparison with the actual observed rates is made based on a predictive deviance criterion. Predictions of lung cancer mortality until 2010 are then reported and a modification of the formulation in order to include information on cigarette consumption is finally described.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Biostatistics
Uncontrolled Keywords: Age–period–cohort model ; Block sampling ; Lung cancer ; Predictive deviance ; Smoking prevalence ; Unstructured heterogeneity.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
ID Code: 19317
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 21 Nov 2008 11:13
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2012 15:28
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/19317

Actions (login required)

View Item