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Accuracy of point predictions in survival analysis.

Henderson, Robin and Jones, M. and Stare, J. (2001) Accuracy of point predictions in survival analysis. Statistics in Medicine, 20 (20). pp. 3083-3096. ISSN 1097-0258

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Abstract

Survival time prediction is important in many applications, particularly for patients diagnosed with terminal diseases. A measure of prediction error taken from the medical literature is advocated as a practicable method of quantifying reliability of point predictions. Optimum predictions are derived for familiar survival models and the accuracy of these predictions is investigated. We argue that poor predictive capability is inherent to standard survival models with realistic parameter values. A lung cancer example is used to illustrate difficulties in prediction in practice.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Statistics in Medicine
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
ID Code: 19313
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 21 Nov 2008 11:42
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Apr 2014 20:23
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/19313

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