Henderson, Robin and Jones, M. and Stare, J. (2001) Accuracy of point predictions in survival analysis. Statistics in Medicine, 20 (20). pp. 3083-3096. ISSN 1097-0258Full text not available from this repository.
Survival time prediction is important in many applications, particularly for patients diagnosed with terminal diseases. A measure of prediction error taken from the medical literature is advocated as a practicable method of quantifying reliability of point predictions. Optimum predictions are derived for familiar survival models and the accuracy of these predictions is investigated. We argue that poor predictive capability is inherent to standard survival models with realistic parameter values. A lung cancer example is used to illustrate difficulties in prediction in practice.
|Journal or Publication Title:||Statistics in Medicine|
|Subjects:||?? qa ??|
|Departments:||Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics|
|Deposited On:||21 Nov 2008 11:42|
|Last Modified:||29 Apr 2017 01:17|
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