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Bayesian modelling of catch in a Northwest Atlantic fishery.

Fernandez, Carmen and Ley, Eduardo and Steel, Mark F. J. (2002) Bayesian modelling of catch in a Northwest Atlantic fishery. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, 51 (3). pp. 257-280. ISSN 1467-9876

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We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian model averaging • Categorical variables • Grand Bank fishery • Predictive inference • Probit model
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: UNSPECIFIED
ID Code: 19262
Deposited By: ep_ss_importer
Deposited On: 19 Nov 2008 13:06
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 06 Sep 2013 18:02
Identification Number:

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