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Competing risks, persistence and desistance in analyzing recidivism.

Escarela, Gabriel and Francis, Brian J. and Soothill, Keith L. (2000) Competing risks, persistence and desistance in analyzing recidivism. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 16 (4). pp. 385-414. ISSN 0748-4518

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Abstract

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples which are subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes of reconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals' transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following a specific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach for investigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown ; initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different types of offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display the data and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survival times. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented in such a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and to assess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction for predetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards of reconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survival probabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted of indecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find a high probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previous sexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard of reconviction for young chronic offenders.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Uncontrolled Keywords: survival analysis - event-specific hazard - split population models - sex offenders - indecent assault
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences > Applied Social Science
ID Code: 14176
Deposited By: Mr Richard Ingham
Deposited On: 13 Oct 2008 14:11
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 09 Oct 2013 15:14
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/14176

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