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Assessment of uncertainties in a long range atmospheric transport model : methodology, application and implications in a UK context.

Page, T. and Whyatt, J. Duncan and Metcalfe, Sarah E. and Derwent, R. G. and Curtis, C. (2008) Assessment of uncertainties in a long range atmospheric transport model : methodology, application and implications in a UK context. Environmental Pollution, 156 (3). pp. 997-1006. ISSN 0269-7491

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Abstract

Acid deposition models are inherently simplified representations of real world behaviour and their performance is best evaluated by comparison with observations. National and international acid rain policy assessments handle observed and modelled deposition fields in different ways. Here, both the observed and modelled deposition fields are seen as uncertain and the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework is used to choose acceptable sets of model input parameters that minimise the differences between them. These acceptable sets of model parameters are then used to estimate deposition budgets to the UK and to provide a probabilistic treatment of excess deposition over environmental quality standards (critical loads). Uncertainties in modelled depositions of S and N to the UK are quantified and their implications for planned emissions reductions considered.

Item Type: Article
Journal or Publication Title: Environmental Pollution
Uncontrolled Keywords: HARM ; GLUE ; Uncertainty ; Critical loads
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 11337
Deposited By: Dr Duncan Whyatt
Deposited On: 13 Aug 2008 16:28
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 06 Sep 2013 17:33
Identification Number:
URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/11337

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